Toss up
March 18th, 2010 by Derrick DePledgeThe Cook Political Report, which tracks political campaigns nationally, has shifted the May special election to fill out the remainder of former congressman Neil Abercrombie’s term from leaning Democratic to a toss up.
Cook analysts first had the race in urban Honolulu’s 1st Congressional District as likely Democratic but now consider it more competitive.
Former congressman Ed Case, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa -- both Democrats -- and Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou -- a Republican -- are the leading candidates.
From the report:
As we noted in last week’s Hawaii rundown, the unique winner-take-all rules of the all-mail special election race to fill the seat of gubernatorial candidate Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI-01) create a low hurdle for Republican Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou to clear in a race against two Democrats. Now, there is genuine concern among Democrats that while Djou is up on air with appealing intro ads that don’t mention his party affiliation, neither state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa nor former Rep. Ed Case are running great campaigns. Case may enjoy an early lead, but he also has the least money and the race is sure to tighten. This has the makings of a genuinely competitive three way race, and President Obama’s 70 percent share of the vote here – this is his native seat – belies this district’s willingness to vote for the right kind of Republican. Hawaii voters will mail in ballots between April 30th and May 22nd, and this seat joins the May 18th special election in PA-12 in the Toss Up column.


