The Rundown
July 22nd, 2008 by Derrick DePledgeHere is a rundown of potentially competitive state House and Senate campaigns based on information from political strategists and party insiders. We will update the outlook and the races at the end of each month as we approach the September primary and November general election.
Overview: With Hawai’i-born U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois likely the Democratic presidential nominee, it could be another strong year for Democrats down the ballot. Average to above-average voter turnout will likely enable Democrats to hold the gains they made in 2004 and 2006. The Obama factor will likely play out most heavily in races that are otherwise even or do not have candidates with strong name recognition or history. But since the majority party has to hold so much territory, Democrats may lose two seats in the state House and could pick up one seat in the state Senate.
High voter turnout — an Obama wave — could result in Democrats holding all of their existing territory and toppling several Republican incumbents.
State Senate
Democrats: 21
Republicans: 4
Projected
Democrats: 22
Republicans: 3
State House
Democrats: 44
Republicans: 7
Projected
Democrats: 42
Republicans: 9
State Senate
*SD1 (Hämäkua, S. Hilo):
Takamine (D)
Hong (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Democrat. Labor influence and Takamine’s history of representing much of the territory in the House give him an advantage, but Gov. Linda Lingle and state Republicans put Hong — the governor’s former chief labor negotiator — at the top of their help list.
*SD3 (Kohala, Kona, Ka’ü):
Green (D)
Isbell (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Democrat pickup. Green, who has been fundraising and campaigning for a year, holds the advantage in the primary but Isbell, a former state representative and County Councilmember, has a history with voters.
*SD5 (W. Maui, S. Maui):
Baker (D)
Mulvihill (D)
Shields (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Baker, the chairwoman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, is in a position to deliver state money and influence but Shields has a base of support among people disappointed that a proposal for a private hospital failed.
*SD12 (Waikïkï, Ala Moana, Downtown):
Trimble (R)
Galuteria (D)
Middleton (D)
Outlook: Leans Republican. A traditionally Republican district may be shifting into the competitive column. Trimble has money and will be an aggressive campaigner. Galuteria is a former Democratic Party of Hawai’i chairman with name recognition as a broadcaster.
*SD18 (Waipahu, Crestview, Pearl City):
Nishihara (D)
Sonson (D)
Outlook: Democrat. Rare intraparty skirmish between two sitting lawmakers. Nishihara is getting help from Senate leadership while Sonson may do well in large Filipino community.
State House
*HD1 (Kohala, Hämäkua, N. Hilo):
Nakashima (D)
Fujiyama (D)
Kim (D)
Nakkim (D)
Offenbaker (R)
Weinert (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Democrat. Labor influence makes this a tough road for Republicans. Early buzz is with Nakashima in the Democratic primary. Republicans like Offenbaker but realize the district is a longshot for the GOP.
*HD4 (Puna, Pähoa, Hawaiian Acres):
Hanohano (D)
Marzi (D)
Sparks (D)
Blas (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Hanohano, a freshman, will have to fight off a primary challenge in an emerging swing district.
*HD6 (N. Kona, Keauhou, Kailua-Kona):
Smith (R)
MacGregor (D)
Coffman (D)
Leslie (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Potential Republican pickup. Smith, the governor’s liaison in West Hawai’i, is one of the GOP’s best hopes in a potentially bleak year. Democrats will assess after the primary, but the buzz is with MacGregor.
*HD11 (Mäkena, Wailea, Kihei):
Bertram (D)
Gingerich (D)
Fontaine (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Traditionally Republican territory could make it difficult on Bertram, a freshman who has a young primary opponent who became active because of Obama. The GOP rates Fontaine, a retired police captain, to do well.
*HD23 (Waikïkï, Ala Moana):
Brower (D)
Stevens (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. The freshman Brower’s narrow victory over Stevens in 2006 was seen as a potential turning point for a district that had been traditionally Republican. The rematch could be telling.
*HD24 (Mänoa):
Chrystn Eads (D)
Jerilyn Jeffryes (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Democrat. Eads, an aide to Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and Jeffryes, a community activist, were last-minute filings after the unexpected announcement that City Councilmember Ann Kobayashi would run for mayor and state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell would jump in to replace her.
*HD35 (Pearl City, Waipahu):
Aquino (D)
Domingo (D)
Parayno (D)
Rahman (D)
Verdadero (D)
Antonio (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Democrat. Wide open primary in a district where the Democratic nominee will be favored. Early buzz is with Aquino.
*HD40 (Royal Kunia, Makakilo, Kapolei):
Har (D)
Legal (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. A swing district that is emerging as one of the most competitive in the state. Har, a freshman, could face a strong challenge from Legal, a Realtor active with the Filipino Chamber of Commerce of Hawai’i.
*HD44 (Honokai Hale, Nänäkuli, Lualualei):
Awana (D)
Aipoalani (D)
Ku (R)
Outlook: Democrat. Awana, a freshman, is facing voters for the first time since switching parties. Aipoalani, a former biotechnology executive, impressed many during his unsuccessful run in the Democratic primary in CD2 in 2006.
*HD46 (Schofield, Mokulë’ia, North Shore):
Magaoay (D)
Lunasco (D)
Wasson (D)
Philips (R)
Riviere (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Magaoay is facing a primary challenge after critical newspaper stories about his oversight of nonprofit grants-in-aid. Philips has come close to Magaoay three times before, but has to contend with Riviere in the primary.
*HD47 (Lä’ie, Hau’ula, Punalu’u):
Meyer (R)
Wooley (D)
Pacheco (D)
Outlook: Leans Republican. Meyer, the most conservative Republican in the House, is popular and a good campaigner. But Democrats think Wooley, an environmental attorney and progressive, may be competitive if she gets through the primary.
*HD51 (Lanikai, Waimänalo):
Kawananakoa (R)
Anderson (D)
Lee (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Potential Republican pickup. Kawananakoa has the money and name recognition to potentially flip the district back into the GOP column.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Thanks, Derrick. I was hoping to find such a list.
I would agree with your numbers. Despite the Obama fervor, I expect the Dems in Hawaii to lose a couple of House seats. Hawaii voters are alienated from the national Republicans and any local Republican who makes the mistake of casting themselves as part of the national Republican mindset are unlikely to do well in Hawaii, though it is still necessary to look at the particular dynamics and personalities in each distrtict, as you have done, to get a count.
The Dems would have benefited if there were a semi-serious GOP congressional candidate this year, which would help increase the connection in voters minds between the Hawaii and national Republicans–either Bush OR McCain.
Ed Case appears to have been scared off by the results of his polling. Voters might be willing to vote for him for Governor, or even for Senator in the future, but his pro-war stance in the race against Akaka is still too fresh in voters minds for him to be able to retake his Congressional seat from Mazie. If the Obama administration is able to repair our relations with the rest of the world and ratchet down the militarism which has radiated from the White House, the voters may be willing to take a chance on Ed for a Senate seat, provided he has learned to tone down his own neo-con rhetoric.
I confess to being a bit annoyed about Caldwell abandoning his House seat with little or no notice, though it appears he may have been consulting with Mufi’s people for support against Bainum. He appears to have kept quiet as part of a deal to allow Eads to take over his seat, rather than a Democrat with more experience in the Valley.
I am hoping their little game will not cost the Democrats the seat because none of the other, more experienced candidates were given adequate notice to file and Eads MAY have missed the deadline in filing her papers. (Though I would argue her filing should be accepted if she was waiting in line with her completed forms when the official deadline passed. If I were waiting in line to vote when the official time came to close the polls, I would expect to be allowed to vote. I think the same principle should apply here.)
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:25 pm
I was wrong. I just read another news account which said Eads did NOT have her forms completed when the deadline passed. I hate to say it, but the Republicans have a strong case in challenging her filing.
I had heard several months that Kobayashi was considering a run for Mayor. I have a hard time believing that Caldwell made his decision to run for Council at the very last minute, with no consultation with other active Democrats in the district.
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